New All-Time 10-Year Yield Low

Some people remember where they were when Kennedy was assassinated, others remember the moon landing. Well today you need to remember the 10-year Treasury hit a new all-time low yield! According to James Bianco via Barry Ritholtz, the previous low was in 1946 at 1.54%. Today’s intraday low (so far) has been 1.536%.  

James Bianco: What Is The All-Time Low 10-Year Yield?

Update: Intraday low ended up being 1.533%

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.

Not Pretty

This is rough. GDP came in at 1.9% for Q1 from the prior estimate of 2.2%. Initial jobless claims were higher than expected, and Chicago PMI data for May was pretty weak.

Only one chart stuck out to me this morning and that was buying (green) vs. selling (red) volume. We hadn’t had a big move in volume ‘pressure’ recently, but yesterday the sellers took over, breaking past the high experienced when the S&P put in a low just under 1300.  As long as selling volume is in control it’s hard to have much hope for a continued rally.

Looking at sector performance, JC Parets did a nice post this morning look at sector relative strength to the S&P, which shows the defensive names leading through May. 

Sector performance is indicating a defensive posture, the euro continues to show weakness, economic data just isn’t strong enough to put in a bid at these levels, and sellers are giving buyers an ass kicking. Not pretty. The May 18th low when it hit the 360-day MA was the line in the sand. I’ll be watching to see if that low and that moving average hold if we get down to that level.

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.

We Have Our New Range

We now have our new range for the S&P 500. This consolidation pattern is not a good sign for the overall index, as it typically continues the prior trend, which in this case would be down. I’m noticing a drop in volume during the range period. I’ll be watching for the level of volume we experience when this pattern breaks, whether it happens on a heavy or weak trading.  

 

Disclaimer:  Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer.