Happy St. Patrick’s Day! We go into this week of trading with an unusual $VIX expiration mid-week and five of the nine S&P sectors nearing their respective 50-day moving averages. All eyes will be on the Fed on Wednesday, with the expectation of another step up in tapering the Fed’s QE program.
While we saw some selling last week, the equity market is still firmly in an up trend. The January highs around 1850 need to be regained this week to keep the bull camp happy and to keep the previous high a solid level of support. I’ll also be watching to see how the S&P 500 ($SPX) acts around the 20-day Moving Average and if traders are able to re-take this short-term MA early in the week.
The Advance-Decline Line weakened alongside price last week. Since it shot up almost in a straight line in February, we do not have much to look for in regards to support for this measure of breadth, which means we can just look at the trajectory of movement it makes as price has declined. What we don’t want to see is breadth weaken at a faster pace than price, showing more severe selling than what may be showing up the day-to-day fluctuation of the S&P.
The Percentage of Stocks Above Their 200-day Moving Averages has once again fallen back under its resistance level of 72.5%. We were starting to see some strength in this data set, but that seems to have been lost with last week’s selling.
The potential divergences that I highlighted two weeks ago stayed in place as price fell. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) taking out its short-term low, we have a confirmed bearish divergence in equity momentum. We still have momentum in a bullish range, which favors an upside breakout. But if the RSI indicator is unable to break above 65 on any new highs then that will be one of the bearish signs we’ll be monitoring for prices to weaken further.
Gold ($GC_F) has been having a great 2014, unlike many other asset classes, with the shiny metal up nearly 15% year-to-date. In February I discussed gold breaking above resistance and showing a positive divergence in momentum. This helped give confidence in the run gold has had and taken it up to prepare for a test of $1,400/oz.
One moving average that doesn’t get mentioned very often for gold is the 300-day MA. This has acted as great support and resistance for gold and is something that’s being tested right now. As the 11-year chart below shows, during the bull market in gold, the 300-day MA acted as support during the majority of short-term corrections in price. In late-2012 we saw gold prices break through the long-term moving average and eventual 400 point drop.
Will this moving average once again be important for traders and act as resistance or will we see price break through and continue on to $1,400? If we do break the 300-day MA I’ll be watching the August ’13 high of $1,435 as the next level of resistance. The August high will likely bring about a fair share of supply into the gold market and may require bulls to take a breath if they plan to continue the up trend in price.
Finally, we also have a historically high reading in sentiment based on COT data for gold. According to SentimenTrader’s Gold Sentiment Score, gold topped out at 92% in September 2012 and is now registering at 75%, which is just under the ‘overbought’ level of 80. SentimenTrader notes that, “over the past 20 years, there have only been four other times that sentiment climbed to 75% while gold was still at least 10% below its previous 52-week high. […] Each of those times, the rally was close to petering out, leading to negative returns over the next month (at least) each time, averaging -4.6%.”
Like we saw on the daily chart, a bearish divergence in momentum developed on the 60-minute S&P 500 chart right before the down turn as well. On any further weakness I’ll be watching the March low just above 1830 as potential support. The RSI indicator is skirting around the 30 level, so it’s possible we see some form of over-sold bounce if things do weaken further and push this momentum indicator into ‘oversold’ territory.
Once again we see the utility sector ($XLU) take the lead in relative performance of the nine S&P sectors. However, one new development last week was seeing consumer staples ($XLP) step up from being an under-performer and show some strength as traders shifted their bias to the defensive sectors of the market.
This will be a busy week with economic reports. We will be getting some insight on inflation and the housing market to start the week, with the always important FOMC announcement on Wednesday.
Monday: Industrial Production and Housing Market Index
Tuesday: Consumer Price Index and Housing Starts
Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
Thursday: Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales
Friday: Quadruple Option Expiration
Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer. Connect with Andrew on Google+, Twitter, and StockTwits.