Yesterday was full of news out of Greece and whether the country could pay its debts while its citizens lined up to take a small maximum amount out of their checking accounts. As far as the equity market was concerned, the world was crashing! At least that’s what you would have thought by seeing how far the Volatility Index ($VIX) had risen.
On Twitter last week I mentioned that the way price and certain pieces of price-related data/indicators were acting, it seemed like we were setting up for a rise . Since then the $VIX has spiked over 55%.
From some of the data I watch, I think we could see a decent sized pop in the $VIX in the next day or so. Seems like something is brewing.
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) June 23, 2015
In fact, this was the 11th largest rise in Volatility in 20 years! Only twice during the 2008 Financial Crisis did we see the $VIX advance by a greater amount in a single day. We finished up trading on Monday with the ‘fear index’ up nearly 40%. I’ve been discussing the decline breadth and momentum on both the blog and on Twitter, the number of stocks rising just hasn’t been able to keep up with the overall index. When this type of thing happens, a spark of international drama can be the needle that breaks the equity camel’s back, at least in the short-term, sending fear soaring like we did today.
So when were the most recent times this measure of trader concern rose at such a fast pace? 2011 and 2013. From those large pops in the the $VIX we saw Volatility mean-revert, falling 70% and 30%, respectively over the next days/weeks. I’m not calling for an immediate decline in Volatility, but historically it does tend to lose steam after such a strong rally, we’ll see if this time is any different.
Full Disclosure: Certain client accounts may have positions in Volatility-related ETPs upon the time of this writing
Disclaimer: Do not construe anything written in this post or this blog in its entirety as a recommendation, research, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in the blog. Please see my Disclosure page for full disclaimer. Connect with Andrew on Google+, Twitter, and StockTwits.