I don’t have a full Technical Market Outlook post today because not much has changed in the current market environment. The trend is still positive, momentum is still bullish (although slightly overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts), and breadth continues to confirm the new highs put in for the equity market.
I remain bullish on stocks for the next couple of weeks until about Mid-July when some important cycles begin to peak. At that point I’ll start looking to see if there are other signs that are showing a bearish bias, but until then it’s hard to get overly negative at these levels based on market internals. There of course is still the concern of the conflict in Iraq and between Russia and Ukraine, but luckily that’s not really on my radar as a technical trader.
We’ll be getting margin debt data for May this week, so I’ll be watching to see if debt continues to weaken and diverge from the advance in equities. If we do get a third print lower for May it wouldn’t be surprising to see traders shed some risk based on the historical trend of a weakening margin debt figure in the face of an up trend in stocks pulling prices lower.
I’ll probably have some other posts up later in the week so be sure to check back then.
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